Following strong credit growth of approximately 19% in 2025, Vietnam’s banking sector is expected to shift toward more selective expansion in 2026, amid high credit-to-GDP levels, rising liquidity pressure, and emerging asset quality risks.

This transition is reinforced by tighter regulatory measures from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), including stricter credit controls and limits on real estate exposure, alongside evolving capital standards that elevate capital strength as a key differentiating factor among banks.

In this context, FiinRatings – a Strategic Partner of S&P Global Ratings introduces the latest report: “Banking Sector 2026 Spotlight | From Surge to Selectivity – Capital Strength and Liquidity Will Shape Vietnam Banking Outlook”, providing an assessment of key trends and risks to support informed and sustainable investment decisions.

Key highlights from the report:

🔹 Credit growth is projected to decelerate in 2026 as the sector shifts toward more selective expansion under tighter regulatory controls.

🔹 Profitability remains under pressure, with NIM declining to 2.9% in 2025 and expected to stay below 3.0% in 2026. Non-interest income, including recoveries and one-off items, continues to provide partial support.

🔹 Asset quality pressures are expected to become more visible in 2026, as the stability of NPLs in 2025 was largely supported by write-offs and recoveries rather than underlying improvement.

🔹 Liquidity pressure has intensified as credit growth outpaced deposit growth in 2025, increasing reliance on wholesale funding and raising funding costs into 2026.

🔹 The sector outlook becomes less favorable in 2026, with greater differentiation across banks based on capital strength, profitability, and funding diversification.

👉 DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT HERE

 You can also check out other reports covering key sectors of Vietnam, including Consumer Finance, Renewable Energy, Securities Companies and others on our website: https://fiinratings.vn/en/sectors-spotlight.html

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