FiinRatings – a Strategic Partner of S&P Global – is pleased to introduce its latest Sector Spotlight Report: "Vietnam Renewable Energy – Old Matters, New Approach." FiinRatings conducted its analysis using information from companies selected on the basis of their asset and revenue scale, industry representativeness, and the availability of dependable sources.

After 3–4 years of stagnation, Vietnam’s renewable energy sector is seeing new policy shifts that could reshape growth trajectories and investment. Against this backdrop, the sector is expected to re-enter a growth trajectory from 2025 onwards, driven by regulatory reform, diversified project models, and rising domestic demand; however, the pace and scale of expansion will hinge on the resolution of long-standing infrastructure and pricing constraints.

🔹 Impact and Outlook of Vietnam’s Renewable Energy Sector:

• Sustained demand trajectory: Electricity consumption is projected to continue rising at approximately 7% annually over the medium term, underpinned by Vietnam’s industrial manufacturing growth, urbanization, and increasing integration into global supply chains. This trend reinforces the necessity for expanding and diversifying generation sources beyond conventional hydro and coal-fired power.
• Structural energy transition: The national power mix is progressively shifting toward low-carbon technologies. Renewable energy (primarily solar and wind) has expanded rapidly since 2019, moving from a negligible share to nearly 30% of installed capacity currently. The long-term policy direction, anchored by Power Development Plan 8 and COP26 commitments, positions renewables as a cornerstone in meeting 2030 emissions targets while maintaining supply adequacy.
• From accelerated build-out to policy recalibration: Vietnam’s 2019–2021 FiT boom drove record renewable capacity growth but also created grid congestion, regional imbalances, and curtailment, while 2021–2024 saw transitional projects stall due to the lack of viable post-FiT pricing. Recently, under Resolution 233/NĐ-CP, MOIT has tasked EVN with resolving 173 contested projects-worth around USD 13bn - by reassessing FiT eligibility and potentially adjusting tariffs, a move developers fear could cut revenues by 25–50% and trigger financial distress. At the same time, the much-anticipated Direct PPA framework has yet to deliver a single project due to unclear rules and unattractive pricing caps, underscoring the urgent need for stable, bankable procurement mechanisms such as competitive auctions or restructured DPPAs to restore investor confidence.
• Regulatory re-opening and market evolution: The introduction of Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPA) in late 2024, together with technology-specific ceiling tariffs, marks a shift toward a more market-oriented renewable framework. These developments offer a pathway for stranded projects to secure offtake and signal a reactivation of investment pipelines, particularly in rooftop solar, offshore wind, and hybrid renewable-storage configurations.
• Short-term outlook:
• Reactivation of transitional projects: DPPA and ceiling tariff mechanisms are enabling previously stalled assets to enter commercial operation, though at reduced tariff levels compared to FiT schemes.
• Refinancing pressure: Significant renewable bond maturities between 2025-2028 will compel developers to secure stable offtake agreements and alternative funding channels to avoid liquidity stress.

🔹 Medium-to-long-term outlook:

• Expansion in rooftop solar (RTS) in industrial zones: RTS adoption in manufacturing clusters is expected to accelerate under corporate sustainability commitments and rising electricity costs.
• Offshore wind momentum: Advancements in permitting, technology costs, and transmission planning should enable the first wave of large-scale offshore wind projects in southern provinces.
• Integration of storage: Battery energy storage systems (BESS) will become commercially relevant as curtailment remains a constraint and dispatchable renewable supply gains premium value.

🔹 Key Watching Factors:

• Timely grid expansion to connect renewable-rich areas to demand hub.
• Tariff and contract certainty to attract long-term capital.
• Policy coordination to avoid overcapacity and regulatory delays.

🔗 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹, 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 “Vietnam Renewable Energy – Old Matters, New Approach” below